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A KFF analysis projects average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027. The estimate is sharply higher than CMS’s projection, and KFF says people may reduce costs by comparing plans during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7.
Average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans are projected to rise by 50% in 2027, from $34 to $51, according to a new analysis by KFF. The projection lands as President Donald Trump claims his administration has secured lower medicine prices, and as Medicare beneficiaries choose coverage for next year during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7.
The increase is an average, not a prediction that every enrollee’s bill will rise by the same amount. KFF found that about 10.4 million people, or 76% of stand-alone plan enrollees who do not receive low-income subsidies, would pay higher monthly premiums in 2027 if they stay with their current plan. That includes 4.1 million people now in zero-premium plans; KFF says no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available next year.
Plan shopping can change the outcome. Robert Travis Scott, of Abingdon, Virginia, received notice that the monthly premium for his AARP-UnitedHealthcare drug plan would rise from $39.60 in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. After comparing options online, he found a Humana plan costing $19.30 a month with similar benefits. Scott estimated the switch would save him about $1,000 next year.
Medicare Advantage enrollees face a smaller projected premium increase for drug coverage. KFF estimates that the average amount attributable to drug benefits in those plans will reach $9 a month in 2027, an increase of less than $2. The analysis also projects higher deductibles: an average of $643 for stand-alone plans, up from $540 in 2026, and $489 for Medicare Advantage drug coverage, up from $360.
How the Increases Affect Medicare Budgets
Premiums are only one part of what beneficiaries may pay for prescription coverage. KFF says most people with Medicare drug coverage in 2027 will face a deductible, and most will pay coinsurance rather than fixed copayments. Coinsurance charges a percentage of a drug’s cost, so a person’s out-of-pocket bill can vary with the medicine they need and its price.
The projected changes matter differently across the Medicare population. Nearly 25 million people have stand-alone drug plans, while about 31 million receive drug coverage through Medicare Advantage, according to KFF. Beneficiaries’ actual costs also depend on their prescriptions, plan terms and any eligibility for low-income assistance. A plan with a lower monthly premium may not necessarily be the least expensive option for someone’s particular medicines.
The timing puts added weight on comparing coverage before enrollment closes. KFF vice president Juliette Cubanski said the stakes are higher for people with stand-alone coverage if they do not review their options. Scott’s experience illustrates that premiums can differ substantially among plans, but does not establish that the same savings are available to every beneficiary.
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KFF identified the end of a federal subsidy pilot as one possible factor behind the projected stand-alone premium increase. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ended the program in July, after providing subsidies to stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026. The pilot had been designed to help keep premiums down. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz described it as an “insurance industry bailout,” according to KFF’s report.
KFF’s projection differs substantially from CMS’s estimate. CMS projected that the national average premium would rise from $35 to $36, based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and suggested the agency may have assumed beneficiaries would move to lower-cost plans. The organizations’ figures therefore should not be treated as directly interchangeable without more information about their methods and assumptions.
The premium dispute is unfolding alongside Trump’s public claims about drug prices. At an Oct. 28 campaign rally in Ohio, before the Nov. 3 midterms, Trump said his administration had achieved lower pharmaceutical prices and asserted that the United States had gone from having the highest prices to the lowest. Those remarks are his claims; the KFF premium analysis does not measure whether negotiated medicine prices have fallen or establish how such changes affect individual beneficiaries’ total costs.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment.”
— Juliette Cubanski, KFF vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy
Why the Forecasts Differ
The cause and scale of the increase remain uncertain. KFF identifies the early end of the subsidy pilot as a possible contributor, but its analysis does not establish that the decision alone caused the projected rise. CMS’s lower estimate uses a different calculation, and KFF says CMS did not explain its method. CMS did not immediately respond to KFF’s request for comment on the findings.
The projections also describe averages, not individual bills. Actual premiums and total costs depend on plan selection, prescriptions, deductibles, coinsurance and eligibility for assistance. The source material does not establish how many beneficiaries will switch plans or what their resulting savings will be. Trump’s statements about national drug prices likewise do not answer how much a particular Medicare enrollee will pay for coverage and medicines in 2027.
Compare Plans Before Enrollment Closes
Medicare’s open enrollment period runs through Dec. 7. Beneficiaries can compare available plans and review how premiums, deductibles and coverage for their own prescriptions differ before choosing coverage for 2027. KFF’s analysis indicates that staying in the same stand-alone plan could mean a higher premium for many enrollees, but the best option will depend on each person’s medicines and plan costs.
The next key figures will come as 2027 coverage takes effect and actual enrollment and costs become clearer. CMS could also provide further explanation of its $1 premium-growth projection or respond to KFF’s analysis; the source report says the agency had not responded by publication. Until then, the differing estimates and the effect of plan switching remain points to watch.
Key Questions
KFF projects the average monthly premium will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, a 50% increase. Individual plan premiums may differ, and the figure is an average.
Will every Medicare drug plan enrollee pay more?
No. KFF estimates that about 10.4 million stand-alone plan enrollees without low-income subsidies would pay higher premiums if they keep their current plan. Beneficiaries’ costs vary by plan and circumstances, and some may find a lower-cost option by comparing coverage.
When does Medicare open enrollment end?
The open enrollment period described in the report runs through Dec. 7. Beneficiaries can compare plan premiums, deductibles and coverage for their medicines before selecting a plan for 2027.
Why does KFF’s estimate differ from CMS’s?
CMS projected a $1 increase in the national average premium, from $35 to $36, using September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and noted that CMS may have assumed people would switch to lower-cost plans. The available information does not resolve the difference.
No. KFF’s analysis concerns Medicare plan premiums, deductibles and cost-sharing. It does not assess Trump’s claims about negotiated drug prices or determine what a particular beneficiary will pay for a medicine.
Source: kffhealthnews.org
